How to Implement Quarterly Rolling Forecasting and Quarterly Rolling Planning – and get it right first time


Re-forecasting the year-end position every month is flawed on a number of counts, it never looks further than year-end, each month the forecast changes creating number noise, the opportunity to set realistic reporting targets for the on-coming quarter is not taken up, the forecast model frequently is based in error prone Excel, and seldom do budget holders buy-in to the forecast as they were not involved in the numbers.

Quarterly rolling forecasting (QRF), typically going out 18 months at a time, can be a quick process.  Less than 5 working days if it follows the “fast, light touch “ philosophy developed from “winning finance” teams from around the world. This white paper will show you “how to implement quarterly rolling forecasting – and get it right first time”. In addition the white paper will show how QRF evolves into quarterly rolling planning(QRP), a process that will revolutionize any organization whether public or private sector! 

It is being increasingly recognised that a planning tool is required for a forecasting and planning process.  The stalwart Excel has now been extended beyond it intended boundaries with management accountants building monsters that are beyond any quality assurance programme, littered with logic errors hidden in the formula and designed with out the big picture view.  However, many planning applications have failed to deliver with seven figure sums being wasted as the forecasting model is redone sometimes within 18 months of the original.  This “planning tool implementation” carnage is well documented.  Whilst there was an excuse before, “it was new territory”, now this is not the case.  We must learn and apply the better practices that are becoming standards.

This white paper will explain why quarterly rolling forecasting (QRF) is the most important management tool of this decade and why the rolling forecasts of the past are a different beast to the 21st century QRF.

If you want to undertake quarterly rolling forecasting in a 21st century planning tool then this is the white paper for you!  This white paper will help you build a better annual planning tool, or if you are already down the path, a robust quarterly rolling forecasting tool.

What you will gain

  • Access to electronic versions of all templates
  • Understand the building blocks to quarterly rolling forecasting
  • Understand how QRF evolves into QRP
  • Apply the checklists and templates designed to help you to implement QRF
  • Avoid the common implementation pitfalls
  • Explain to your management why your organisation should implement quarterly rolling forecasting

Content

  • How each subsequent rolling forecast works
  • An implementation roadmap
  • Three case studies on how to migrate from Excel to a planning tool
  • A brief summary of the main forecasting and planning tools
  • Pareto’s 80/20 rule when designing a forecasting/planning model
  • The 10 rules you need to apply
  • The 10 pitfalls to avoid at all costs
  • Mapping out the purpose of the model first

Table of Contents

  1. Presenter biography
  2. Flawed rolling forecast processes
  3. What is a rolling quarterly forecast process?
  4. The rise and rise of the rolling quarterly forecast
  5. The features of a quarterly rolling forecast (QRF) process
  6. Recognise that it is a bottom-up process
  7. Creates the annual plan goal posts
  8. Creates a quarter-by-quarter funding mechanism
  9. Based on a planning application – not Excel
  10. Based around key drivers
  11. Based around a quick process
  12. Rolling 18 months not 12, 13 or 15 months
  13. Quarterly process not monthly
  14. Some case studies
  15. Case study 1: Steel manufacturer
  16. Case study 2: Distributor
  17. Case study 3: Diverse multinational
  18. Making the sale to the SMT
  19. Benefits of rolling quarterly forecasts to a budget holder include:
  20. Benefits of rolling quarterly forecasts to the SMT include:
  21. Implementation issues
  22. Barriers to implementation
  23. Lessons learnt from implementing rolling forecasts
  24. Lesson 1: Start with a clean sheet of paper
  25. Lesson 2: Begin with SMT commitment and education
  26. Lesson 3: Progress through stealth
  27. Lesson 4: Select a small team
  28. Lesson 5: Don't get too flash – avoid the rocket scientist
  29. Lesson 6: Find yourself an external facilitator
  30. Lesson 7: Focus on the marketing
  31. Lesson 8: Design the model yourself – do not let a third party do it for you
  32. Roadmap and templates
  33. Selecting the software
  34. Rolling Quarterly Forecasting cycle
  35. Impact on monthly reporting – more meaningful monthly reporting
  36. Last words